Millets for Climate Change

Millets often referred as miracle crops/grains, are major food sources in arid and semi-arid regions of the world, and feature in the traditional cuisines. They are also considered as the lifeline for the dry and rainfed tracts. They are put to multiple uses as food, feed and fodder, besides being the raw material for industries. Millets are some of the oldest of cultivated crops and the staple foods for millions, particularly in undeveloped and developing nations of Africa and Asia.

Sorghum/Jowar, Pearlmillet/ Bajra are given the status of major millets and other millets, often referred as minor millets are Finger millets, Kodo millets, proso millet and many more. They are grown with limited water resources and usually without any fertilizers or other inputs by a multitude of small farmers in many countries. Therefore, and because they are mostly consumed by disadvantaged groups, they are often referred to as "coarse grains" or "poor people's crops". They are not usually traded in the international markets or even in local markets in many countries. The farmers seldom, therefore, have an assured market in the case of surplus production.

The spatial distribution of millets either as a primary crop or as allied crops largely depends on the growing habitat and the amount of rainfall the region receives. The millets are the hardest grains and can sustain and flourish even in the most adverse agro-climates with poorest quality soil, minimum or, almost nil water, most adverse weather variations and lastly, the miniscule care and management practices.

Millets can be cultivated throughout the year, whereas wheat and paddy are seasonal crops. It is learnt that minor millets such as sorghum, pearl millet, finger millet, foxtail millet, etc can grow without irrigation and are nutritious than rice.

Forgotten Grains

The millets exhibit unimaginable levels of inter and intra specific diversity, a lot of which we have lost and very few were recorded and documented at centres like, ICRISAT and NRC Sorghum. After the green revolution, top priority was accorded to rice and wheat. Hundreds of high-yield varieties were introduced by agricultural research centres. But at the same time, there was not much of an opportunity to grow crops like millets. Crops like sugarcane, paddy and wheat require more water. To fulfill this demand, underground water was exploited.

In the four decades between 1966 and 2006, while the total production of rice more than doubled (125%), from 38mt to nearly 86mt, and the output of wheat jumped threefold (285%), from just over 18mt to 70mt, the total production of all kinds of millets has actually come down by 2.4%— from almost 18.5mt to below 18mt. This decline in the production of millets can be largely attributed to the fall in the cultivated area, from over 36mha half-a-century ago to just over 21mha at present. Over the last 40 years, over 40% of the areas that were under millet cultivation is now being used to grow other crops.

Fighting the cause for Climate Change

If the temperature rises, the crop pattern and the farming system will be affected badly. Millets are climate change compliant crops and many of these crops can fix carbon in the soils thereby becoming agents of carbon.

Millets are highly energy and resource efficient crops, as with the least utilization of inputs it yields considerably by virtue of its acclimatization, structural and physiological adaptability, and drought and disease-pest evading mechanisms. Indian agriculture with more dependence on monsoon and seasonal rains, could well readopt the forgotten crops to regain the dominance over the coarse grains and reorient the agricultural prosperity in the state with the available resources.

Threat to Wheat and Rice

Climate change portends less rain, more heat, reduced water availability and increased malnutrition. It is important to note that, once we cross the ceiling of two degree celsius temperature rise, wheat may disappear from our farming system.

Wheat is an extremely thermal sensitive crop and it can’t withstand this temperature rise. Similarly, rice is the most consumed grain in the world and the demand is increasing over the years. But current paddy cultivation methods are affecting the environment. Most farmers follow paddy farming in the standing water system. But methane gas emanating from inundated rice fields is a greenhouse gas. If these two crops disappear from the farming sector, then which are the crops that will fill the gap?

Millets are the answer. Millets can be cultivated throughout the year, whereas wheat and paddy are seasonal crops. Millets are capable of growing under drought conditions; they can withstand higher heat regimes. Millets like Kodo millet, Proso millet, Little millet, Finger millet, Barnyard millet and Pearl millet grow under non-irrigated fields and also in low rainfall area with 200 to 500 mm. They can still provide a good yield under water scarcity.

Food security issues

One more problem that could occur in the near future is food insecurity. Wheat and rice may give only food security, but millets give multiple securities like food, fodder, health, nutrition, and livelihood. More over, millets attract neither pest nor disease. Therefore, their need for pesticides is nil.

Increasing malnutrition has become a major problem for the government. Millets can be used to meet this demand, as they are a storehouse of nutrients.

The Neglect

Policy neglect, lack or, very few research attention limited to the dry tracts, MSP and subsidies, Irrigation facilities creation and the phenomenon of Green revolution has robbed the significance of these precious, but not much precarious grains. The government policy of thrusting rice and wheat on all states through the PDS killed millet cultivation. The output declined from 18.41mt in 1966 to 17.97mt in 2006, a fall of over 2%. On the other hand, wheat production went up from 18.1mt to 69.73mt in the period, an increase of 284%. Rice production rose 125% during the period.

Millet-based bio diverse cropping systems can come as a solution to this agrarian crisis as it liberates farming from water intensive cropping such as rich or wheat to a nature commodity controlled farming system.

Helping hands

Some NGOs’ and Government bodies have initiated commendable programs to save these grains. The Millet Network of India (MINI), is one among such organizations working for the cause of promoting the millets in the Indian diets. According to P V Satheesh, Convenor, Millet Network of India (MINI), millet farming systems offer food security apart from fodder, health and nutritional security. "We are persuading the Centre to allocate at least 40% of its food security budget to millet-based farming and food systems," he said.

The NGO is also trying to create “parliamentarians of millets” with participation from the policy makers, NGOs and other stake holders.

Millet Network of India is an alliance consisting of more than 65 institutions, scientists, farmers, civil society groups representing over 15 states. The organisation has sought priority to millets as part of the Food Security Act. “We are seeking recognition of millets as a climate change compliant crop and promotion of its cultivation and consumption,” says P V Satheesh.

Grains of Health

Millets, namely jowar, bajra, ragi, foxtail millet, little millet, and kodo millet not only require less water to grow but are also super cereals with more nutrients than other food grains. These crops are still the principal sources of energy, protein, vitamins and minerals for millions of the poorest people. The protein content in millet is very close to that of wheat; both provide about 11% protein by weight. Millets are also rich in B vitamins, especially niacin, B6 and folic acid, calcium, iron, potassium, magnesium, and zinc. Millets also have more fibre than rice and wheat. Some varieties have as much as 50 times more fibre than rice. A bowl of halwa made of finger millets or ragi is 30 times rich in calcium than a bowl of rice.

If a farmer grows millets, he gets a large quantity of fodder, besides the nutritious crop. The fodder helps him feed animals, which give enough farmyard manure, thus leading to a fall in use of chemical fertilisers. So, the crop is a bulwark against drought and debt, not to speak of malnutrition.

Millet days ahead

The new opportunities provided by climate change issues including drought and the National Food Security Act must be fully seized upon by governments to rejuvenate farming systems as well as livelihoods in the dry land areas by offering pride of place for millet based farming systems. These can be the best possible solution against malnutrition in the country, if included in PDS, so as to create a huge market for millet farmers acting more as an incentive. Government can also include millets into the National Food Security Act in the backdrop of the unprecedented drought and looming climate change crisis.

Being a largely agricultural country, India has one solution, and this could be adopted in any country with minor changes. It seems that our local millets could yet provide the best answer to the global problem.

Talks beyond Copenhagen

The threat of climate change that led to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) at Rio, is perceived differently by different countries. Unsustainable consumption patterns of the rich industrialised nations are responsible for the threat of climate change. Only 25% of the global population lives in these countries, but they emit more than 70% of the total global CO₂ emissions and consume 75 to 80% of many of the other resources of the world. The richer world accounts for over 50% of carbon emissions and China brings the proportion to over 70%. In contrast, India accounts for less than 5% of global emissions. In per capita terms, the disparities are also large: an Indian citizen emits less than 0.25 tonnes of Carbon per year whereas a citizen of the USA, for example, emits more than 5.5 tonnes.

Another theme of Indian analysts has been the lack of reliability of GHG emission estimates, particularly of methane. According to initial estimates, large emissions of methane from paddy fields were ascribed to developing countries. However, the empirical basis of these estimates was questioned; subsequently experimental measurements by Indian researchers showed these doubts to be well-founded. Many Scientists and policymakers belonging to developing Nations argue that emissions by poor who live on the margin of subsistence should be considered a basic human right and should not be counted when ascribing responsibilities for emission reduction.

These facts have delayed any sort of effective international agreement on how to deal with the problem. In the case of the Montreal Protocol covering ozone-depleting substances, there was a wide consensus and effective action was mobilised quickly. Thus, an understanding of perceptions and positions of different countries makes it easier to explore possibilities of effective action.

Even in recently released IFPRI report, it’s clearly elucidated that agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change, because farming is so weather-dependent and small-scale farmers in developing countries will suffer the most. During the same phase, we are witnessing unsounding price rise, with substantial reduction on production fronts and weather aberration in the form of late or, almost failed rains/ monsoon, flood and deluge in rainfed and dry areas. Lastly, the study has called for an additional annual investment of $7 billion in agricultural productivity to help farmers adapt to climate change.

India’s perceptions on the problem of climate change and sustainable development; the kind of negotiating positions that follow from these perceptions; the policies India has undertaken so far and finally India’s possibilities for action that can help contain the threat of climate change.

Minister of state for environment and forests, Jairam Ramesh scotched speculation that India was softening its stand by allowing international verification of its steps for climate change mitigation or by agreeing to international commitment for quantified cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. India has always opposed the “full stop” word from its climate change talks.

India has insisted that the measures it undertakes, as part of its domestic measures to counter climate change, will not be subject to international verification and reporting, unless it is funded internationally or uses technology received from abroad, like the world’s industrialized counterparts claiming to have taken all efforts to reduce the emission caps and mitigation measures, but denies any the right to be questioned or scrutinized.

There should also be consideration towards the common but differentiated responsibilities of different countries. As such, mitigation by India in two or three decades is neither necessary nor sufficient to arrest global warming and its consequence according to many experts in the field.

The argument that mitigation is not feasible without India's participation is thus political. As a bargaining tactic, the United States Congress refuses to undertake internationally-mandated mitigation obligations unless India accepts them.

There is a need for an equitable and efficient solution to climate change, so that efficiency can be obtained through a system of tradeable emission quotas and equity through equal allocation of global environmental space to all human beings. Therefore, in so far as the impact of human activity on global warming, rains, floods, sea levels and hurricanes in two to three decades is concerned, the die is already cast. So, it is time to act and further the talk on equity and sustainable basis, which should be acceptable to all partners across the globe and economic classes. Negotiations leading up to the climate change conference in Copenhagen in December are deadlocked on the question of similar demands on developing nations.

Climate Change and its impact on Indian Agriculture

Climate change is defined as change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. New options for carbon sequestration in agriculture and forestry and land-use change such as deforestation contributes to, respectively, 13 and 17 percent of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While carbon dioxide emissions from agriculture are small, the sector accounts for about 60 percent of all nitrous oxide (N₂O, mainly from fertilizer use) and about 50 percent of methane (CH₄, emitted, mainly from natural and cultivated wetlands and enteric fermentation). The IPCC estimates that the global technical mitigation potential for agriculture (excluding forestry) will be between 5 500 and 6 000 Mt CO₂-equivalent per year by 2030, 89 percent of which are assumed to be from carbon sequestration in soils.

In India the direct impact of climate change would effect plant growth, development and yield due to changes in rainfall and temperature. Increase in temperature would reduce crop duration, increase crop respiration rates, change the pattern of pest attack and new equilibrium between crops and pests hasten mineralization in soils and decrease fertilizer use efficiency. All these could considerably affect crop yields in long run. In general the simulation results indicate that increasing temperature and decreasing solar radiation levels pose a serious threat in decreasing growth and yield of agricultural crops. Increased CO₂ levels are expected to favor growth and increase crop yields and therefore, will be helpful in counteracting the adverse effects of temperature rise in future. On global level climate change effects will change the crop production areas. In middle and higher latitudes, global warming will extend the length of the potential growing season, allowing earlier planting of crops in the spring, earlier maturation and harvesting, and the possibility of completing two or more cropping cycles during the same season.

Crop-producing areas may expand pole ward in countries although yields in higher latitudes will likely be lower due to climate change. Many crops have become adapted to the growing season, day lengths of the middle and lower latitudes and may not respond well to the much longer days of the high latitude summers. In warmer, lower latitude regions, increased temperatures may accelerate the rate at which plants release CO₂ in the process of respiration, resulting in less than optimal conditions for net growth. Another important effect of high temperature is accelerated physiological development, resulting in hastened maturation and reduced yield.

Available water

Agriculture of any kind is strongly influenced by the availability of water. Climate change will modify rainfall, evaporation, runoff, and soil moisture storage. Changes in total seasonal precipitation or in its pattern of variability are both important. The occurrence of moisture stress during flowering, pollination, and grain-filling is harmful to most crops and particularly so to corn, soybeans, and wheat. Increased evaporation from the soil and accelerated transpiration in the plants themselves will cause moisture stress; as a result there will be a need to develop crop varieties with greater drought tolerance.

The demand for water for irrigation is projected to rise in a warmer climate, bringing increased competition between agriculture, already the largest consumer of water resources in semiarid regions and urban as well as industrial users. Falling water tables and the resulting increase in the energy needed to pump water will make the practice of irrigation more expensive, particularly when with drier conditions more water will be required per acre. Peak irrigation demands are also predicted to rise due to more severe heat waves.

Pest and disease

Conditions are more favorable for the proliferation of insect pests in warmer climates. Longer growing seasons will enable insects such as grasshoppers to complete a greater number of reproductive cycles during the spring, summer, and autumn. Warmer winter temperatures may also allow larvae to winter-over in areas where they are now limited by cold, thus causing greater infestation during the following crop season. Altered wind patterns may change the spread of both wind-borne pests and of the bacteria and fungi that are the agents of crop disease. Crop-pest interactions may shift as the timing of development stages in both hosts and pests is altered. Livestock diseases may be similarly affected. The possible increases in pest infestations may bring about greater use of chemical pesticides to control them, a situation that will require the further development and application of integrated pest management techniques.

Sustainability and food security

Climate change can impact agricultural sustainability in two interrelated ways: first, by diminishing the long-term ability of agro-ecosystems to provide food and fiber for the world's population; and second, by inducing shifts in agricultural regions that may encroach upon natural habitats, at the expense of floral and faunal diversity. Global warming may encourage the expansion of agricultural activities into regions now occupied by natural ecosystems such as forests, particularly at mid- and high-latitudes. Forced encroachments of this sort may thwart the processes of natural selection of climatically-adapted native crops and other species.

While the overall, global impact of climate change on agricultural production may be small, regional vulnerabilities to food deficits may increase, due to problems of distribution and marketing food to specific regions and groups of people. For subsistence farmers, and more so for people who now face a shortage of food, lower yields may result not only in measurable economic losses, but also in malnutrition and even famine. In general, the tropical regions appear to be more vulnerable to climate change than the temperate regions for several reasons. On the biophysical side, temperate C₃ crops are likely to be more responsive to increasing levels of CO₂. Second, tropical crops are closer to their high temperature optima and experience high temperature stress, despite lower projected amounts of warming. Third, insects and diseases, already much more prevalent in warmer and more humid regions, may become even more widespread.

Inferences:

1. CO₂ is increasing.

2. CH₄ is increasing.

3. Earth atmosphere systems temperature and Surface temperature
is increasing.

4. Extreme temperatures increasing

5. Atmospheric water vapour content increasing. Frequency of heavy precipitation events increasing

6. More intense and longer droughts.

7. Mid-latitude wind patterns/ storm tracks shifting poleward.

8. Tropical cyclone intensity increasing.

9. Area of seasonally frozen ground decreasing.

10. Glaciers and snow cover decreasing, Arctic sea ice extent decreasing.

Conclusions:

1. Plantation should be increased on the foots of Himalaya, Sahyadri ranges, coastal area and barren land. With reference to Gujarat forest area should increase from 9.5% to 20% in next decade or by 2020 AD.
2. For controlling methane emission from the paddy field, the appropriate water saving technology should be used instead of transplanting and submerged paddy cultivation method.
3. Shelter belts should be created near sea shore to check salinity and salt nuclei in atmosphere, which changes rainfall pattern.
4. The simulation results indicate that increasing temperature and decreasing solar radiation levels pose a serious threat in decreasing growth and yield of agricultural crops. Increased CO₂ levels are expected to favor growth and increase crop yields and therefore, will be helpful in counteracting the adverse effects of temperature rise in future.

FUTURE NEEDS

• In many studies the impact of climate change on crop growth and yield is analyzed using crop simulation models.

• A proper analysis of the performance of such models should be made to verify their reliability in the projected conditions of changed atmospheric composition and changed climate.

• Further identify regional variations and sensitivity (w.r.t. Climate change)

• Impacts would be analyzed mainly for: Crop yields and variability and

• Shifts in relative productivity and production

Way forward:-

Advances in technology has altered the trade off between growth and environmental quality in recent years. It is possible to ensure environmental quality now, more than ever before, if we manage to harness the entrepreneurial skills of the people, administrative skills of the State, the reach of civil society, growth and investments to work for environment rather than against it. Stronger partnerships and better polices can make up for poor resources. The provision of clean drinking water, pure air and sanitation are as much poverty busters as is increase in income.

- Dr. M. C. VARSHNEYA, VC, AAU, Gujarat-