KHETI BARI

Agricultural output to rise by 3.8% in FY12: CMIE

India's agriculture output is expected to rise by 3.8% in 2011-12 on assumption of favourable weather conditions, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) said in its monthly review here. "We project that agricultural output will grow for the second consecutive year in 2011-12. It is expected to rise by 3.8%, over an estimated 6.5% growth in 2010-11," CMIE said.

Our projection is based on the assumption that weather conditions will be favourable during the fiscal. Production of major crops is projected to grow by 3.1% in 2011-12, while output of minor crops is projected to expand by 5%, it said.

Foodgrain production set to grow by 3.7% to 236.9 million tonnes in FY12. It will surpass the record level of 234.5 million tonnes achieved in 2008-09. Higher output of rice and wheat will power this growth. Rice holds a share of 40% and wheat 35% in total foodgrain output.

Wheat output has been growing consistently for the last seven years and this trend is expected to continue in 2011-12 fiscal. Wheat output is expected to touch record levels of 82.3 million tonnes in FY12. This increase will be largely driven by wider cultivation in the country's key wheat granaries-Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab and Rajasthan.

In 2009-10, acreage of wheat was an impressive 286.8 lakh hectares. Coverage during the ongoing rabi season has been even more remarkable. By January 2011, it had crossed 290 lakh hectares. This, complemented by a prolonged cold wave in north and central India, is expected to boost production. In 2010-11, wheat production is expected to grow by 1.1 per cent.

Prospects for the rice crop are positive for 2010-11 and 2011-12. Output is expected to grow in both the years on account of increased acreage and yield. Pulses production is also expected to touch record levels in 2011-12.

High accruals from pulses will motivate farmers to enhance coverage in 2011-12 as well. Hence, we project that pulses production will expand by 19.3 per cent in 2011-12, CMIE said. Oilseeds production is expected to revive in 2011-12, after declining for two successive years.

The demand-supply gap in oilseeds has inflated prices considerably for the last three years. Conducive weather conditions alongwith incremental returns, has encouraged farmers to increase the acreage of oilseeds in 2010-11. Hence, output is projected to recover by 15 per cent in 2010-11. In 2011-12, it is projected to grow by 2.9 per cent as steady demand will lead to healthy coverage.