Intensity and Impact of Drought- Looking Forward

With over 250 out of 533 meteorological districts declared as drought-hit and rice production alone expected to decline above 10 million tons, the situation in the country on food front is grim. The cascading effect of drought on many sectors is discernible, necessitating strategies on priority. The prolonged monsoon failure is likely to affect stored moisture dependant rabi season for early sowing of crops. Depleted water in reservoirs would aggravate the situation unless drastic steps are taken.

South west monsoon is crucial for agriculture production with kharif crops comprising cereals, pulses, oil seeds and vegetables. Livestock and fisheries sectors also thrive well with copious rainfall. In normal rainfall years the productivity showed upward trend, while any deviation in rainfall tended to lower productivity curve depending the deficit levels. The cumulative rainfall during the season is a major parameter to define either excess or deficient rainfall. If the shortfall is between 20% and 59% of the normal rainfall, it is defined as ‘deficient’, while shortfall above 60% in the cumulative rainfall is considered ‘scanty’. The country experienced both in different States.

Intensity of drought: From the very beginning of monsoon there was erratic rainfall in some States. By early August the deficiency in cumulative rainfall was 25%, but within ten days increased to 29%. By mid August the Meteorological department placed 115 districts under ‘scanty’ rainfall category, with ‘deficient’ category enhanced to 262 districts. The normal or excess rainfall occurred only in 149 districts. When computed on the basis of normal average rainfall over five years this year’s failure is much higher in ten States. The announcement of daily and weekly fluctuations resulted in statements like ‘monsoon will recover’, ‘grim monsoon’, ‘do not panic’ which reflected on lack of adequate preparations to face the crisis. By the time the realization on the intensity of drought dawned it was too late for many initiatives. The infrastructure, expertise and funds in plenty did not help in time as people expected. Even to declare the States and country as ‘drought-hit’ was debated for long.

State scenario: The Western Uttar Pradesh was the worst hit with 68% shortfall, followed by Delhi-Haryana-Chandigarh belt with 66%; Eastern Uttar Pradesh was better with 53%. All the three regions of Andhra Pradesh recorded deficiencies as high as 59% in Telangana, 51% in Rayalaseema, but little less in coastal regions with 46%. The situation was no better in Himachal Pradesh (51%), Jharkhand (49%) Marathwada (47%) and Uttarakhand (42%). Although there was slight improvement in Punjab and Bihar due to mid season showers, the deficiency increased later to 35% and 40% respectively. In the North East region the shortfall ranged from 33% (Arunachal Pradesh) to 37% (Assam and other States). Although the deficiency was less in mid July in Tamil Nadu and Puduchery (16%) and Northern Karnataka (17%), the cumulative rainfall declined to 22% in these regions by the first week of August. Similar deficiency was recorded in Gujarat (from 22% to 31%), West Madhya Pradesh ( from 21% to 28%) and East Madhya Pradesh (from 35% to 39%). Thus, monsoon played havoc in major parts of ‘food baskets’ of India.

Ground realities: The immediate impact of the drought was that majority of kharif crops could not be raised and even those raised with initial good rainfall suffered later due to water stress. It is estimated that the deficit in rainfall in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand took a heavy toll of 57.10 lakh hectares of paddy fields. The area under groundnut fell short by 11.28 lakh hectares, sugarcane by 1.29 lakh hectares and coarse cereals by 1.17 lakh hectares. In Andhra Pradesh both paddy and maize were affected in Warangal district. In Khammam paddy was taken up only under 9000 ha as against 1.15 lakh ha. Only 1.15 lakh ha could be taken up against 8.21 lakh ha under groundnut in Ananthapur due to acute water shortage. Many Kharif vegetables were lost to the tune of lakhs of tons caused by drought stress. In many States, fodder grass suffered with poor growth and barren land, which affected livestock. One of the States reported marked decline in milk production, due to water and fodder starved cows. With drying up of small ponds and lakes even fishes died causing hardship to low income communities in rural India

Decline in agriculture productivity: As a consequence of much lowered cultivable land for food crops, including nutritionally rich vegetables, the country is poised for a near food crisis, notwithstanding buffer stocks. As the vegetables constitute ‘current consumption’ category of food the people in the adversely affected areas would have gone without normal intake of vegetables which would lead to malnutrition. As admitted by the Union Agriculture Minister 57.10 lakh ha of paddy land could not be cultivated, which amounts to a loss of roughly 13.7 million tons ( at the rate of 2.4 tons per ha). This is a huge kahrif deficit of staple food. Even coarse cereals consumed mostly by rural low income population would show a decline of nearly 0.60 million tons due to 1.17 lakh ha rendered uncultivable. A deficit in groundnut production to approximately 3.28 million tons is anticipated with lowered area of 11.28 lakh ha. Likewise, sugarcane yield is likely to decrease nearly by 30 to 35%. Although estimates are not available, fodder grass production would also be lowered significantly with impact on animals. Reliable estimates are awaited on the shortage of milk production caused by fodder starved animals. Thus the contribution of kharif food production in 2009 to the overall production with rabi by 2009-10 is expected to be much lower than the average food production of last five to ten years. The drought-induced decline in the food production in 2009-10 is likely to be much higher than the other drought years.

Excess or normal rainfall: Fortunately, some of the States in South and East India received fairly good rainfall, some even accounting for excess. So the crops in such situations fared well giving hopes for good yield. The crops included paddy, pulses and oil seeds with vegetables with normal production, though some areas did report decline due to floods. Whether increasing the level of cultivation in these areas would help in solving or compensating the loss suffered due to deficit rainfall in major States? It would not have been possible to increase the potential of the areas without adequate preparations both land wise and input like seed materials. Neither the Central nor the State Governments anticipated the problem, though such contingency plan should be ready in future.

Looking forward: Generally, with the cessation of SW monsoon in September with normal rainfall, ensuring storage of soil moisture used to help greatly rabi crop sowing operations. With North East monsoon supporting the early crop growth, as also irrigation at required stages, crops like wheat and pulses used to perform well with good harvest in April. But, the current year is different with calamitous monsoon with acute water shortage resulting in dried soil and poor to nil conservation. This is going to cause problems for rabi as well, even if the North East monsoon is normal. The shortage of ground water in many places would pose problem to irrigate crops at critical stages. According to the Central Water Commission the water level in the country’s reservoirs is around 38% of total capacity by mid August. A normal SW monsoon would have enhanced the levels in reservoirs but that was not to be this year. This clearly indicates that the dwindling water resources would hamper irrigation for rabi crops. If NE monsoon is also erratic the situation would worsen with difficulties for redemption. The only hope, therefore, is normal NE monsoon rainfall to cope up with the rabi production to sustain the trend in production, though it would not compensate the heavy shortage of kharif. How to tackle the situation to save at least the rabi production? The answer lies in large scale water harvesting structures in buildings to trap rainfall, field moisture conservation strategies, planting of proven stress resistant/tolerant varieties of crops with distribution to farmers in adequate quantities well in time and enhance the efficiency of irrigation channels to be ready to supply water to crops at right time. At the social/ community level, judicious rationing of water for industrial and real estate purposes, strict restriction of water supply for domestic consumption uniformly to all areas including VIPs, heavy penalty for wastage of water and theft are all appropriate measures the Government has to implement with strong political will to save the citizens from impending food crisis.

To sum up, the apparent unpreparedness on the part of the authorities, both Central and State Governments until drought situation worsened in August might serve to learn the unlearnt lessons, despite drought being an age old problem, well researched for decades, with many committee recommendations. The problem is most difficult but not impossible to solve with coordinated strategies with time bound implementation of decisions.

- Dr. Rajagopal V., Ex – Director, CPCRI, Kasargod-

INDIA, DROUGHT & PRICE RISE

India is reeling through a crisis seen after a long time. Continuous good monsoon had brought a sense of well being among the Indian policymakers about our food security. However failing rains across the country has busted quite a few myths. The entire country barring the Saurashtra peninsula of Gujarat has received inadequate rainfall till the week ending 5^th August. Parts of western UP and Haryana have received up to 64%-61% less rainfall from average. Nearly 60 percent of India’s farm sector is dependent on monsoon rains between June and September. This year has witnessed one of the driest spells in eight decades, as according to IMD. While the debate rages whether Global Warming is the prima facie culprit for this situation, the effects are far ranging and for the 214 million Indians below the poverty line who are denied access to two square meals a day, the implications are disastrous.

The spectre of drought looms large over as many as 161 out of 626 districts in India due to deficient monsoon, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said in New Delhi recently, but asked citizens not to panic. “One hundred and sixty one districts have been declared drought-prone. As far as sowing is concerned, 20 percent would be down,” Mukherjee told reporters on the margins of an annual conference. “Monsoon situation is still erratic,” he warned, but added: “But there is no point of pressing the panic button. You all will go and start chanting drought, drought, drought and it will have an adverse impact.” Mukherjee said Punjab and Haryana, two most important states for food output, were fortunate since they use groundwater extensively, even as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh were facing shortage of water.

Rice has been the worst hit, with the area declining by 6mha. Sugar follows closely. While Uttar Pradesh, the second-largest sugar producer, has declared drought in 47 districts, Maharashtra has cut its sugar output forecast to 4.6mt from 5mt predicted in June. Global sugar prices have jumped to their highest in more than 25 years as India, the world’s largest consumer, has had to tap the global market to offset the impact of the poor monsoon on the country’s sugarcane crop. Prices in India are, however, still lower than the cost of imported sugar.

Crisil Economist, Dharmakirti Joshi said any shortage on food can push up the consumer price index much faster this time as the index is very high in comparison to previous drought situations in 2002-03. “If the monsoon revives from now on, the damage to crops may be limited. But the damage done to crops such as paddy can’t be undone now,” he said. Tushar Poddar, vice-president and chief economist at investment bank Goldman Sachs India, said that the weak rainfall could reduce agricultural growth to -2 per cent year-on-year, down from an earlier estimate of 1.4 per cent. And UBS has warned that if rainfalls failed to improve, real growth in GDP could be 1 to 2 per cent lower this year than its forecast of 7 per cent. A Citigroup study said the damage on the price front had taken place. Despite the mitigating factors like the possibility of a better winter crop and higher food stocks, primary product prices have begun to spiral. Commodities hit include pulses, rice, fruit and vegetables and cereals with tur dal, a lentil native to India and part of the staple diet, costing over Rs.100 a kilogram in several states.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh indicated that the government is ready to undertake open market intervention to prevent the rise in grain prices caused by deficient and delayed monsoon rains. “We should not hesitate to take strong measures and intervene in the market if the need were to arise,” Singh said at a meeting of state chief secretaries in New Delhi recently.

A contingency blueprint being drawn up by officials proposes higher sugar and pulses imports, a ban on edible oil exports and curbs on futures trading in commodities whose prices are rising fast. India may have to import 3-4mt sugar — international prices have begun rising in anticipation of higher demand from India. India needs 18mt of pulses a year but its production fell short by 3.4mt last year because of water shortage in central India. This year, fears of more water scarcity have shrunk the acreage by 10%.

So far, 58 districts in UP, 26 in Bihar, 24 in Jharkhand, 12 in Himachal Pradesh and 9 in Manipur have been declared drought affected while 27 in Assam, 11 in Nagaland and 10 in Maharashtra are facing drought like conditions. Asking the Union power ministry to provide additional electricity to states like Punjab, Haryana, UP, Jharkhand and Bihar, who have suffered crop loss, the agriculture minister said the government will bear the cost of the diesel subsidy (50% of the cost usually borne by the state government).

Ajay Loganadan, Head-Investment Advisory Group, HSBC Private Banking said a 2% output reduction in agriculture, actually impacts our GDP by only 1%. "Given the fiscal stimulus policies and the policy measures that have been announced, which are largely geared towards the rural sector, we believe that should really offset the negative impact of monsoons."

The rise in prices of food items in June and July this year has been up to 32% as compared to 18% in the corresponding period in 2008. The retail price of tur, ruling at Rs 62 a kg in June, rose to Rs 82 a kg by the end of July. At present, tur has skyrocketed to about Rs 90 a kg in many places across the country. Chana dal (split chick peas), which was going at Rs 47 a kg in June in Kerala, now cost Rs 56 a kg by July-end. A 19% year-on-year jump in the price of pulses, a 15.5% leap in the cost of rice and similar rises for fruits and vegetables has been noticed recently.

"The lower the income category, the more of their total income they spend on food and the more food prices rise, the more it hurts the 'common man, said Crisil's Dharmakirti Joshi”. The already high prices of food items may skyrocket further, and deficit agriculture production was likely to push up prices of essential commodities in the near future. Experts have been warning that the food situation in the country is going to be "dangerous" from September. Already, prices of oil and pulses have zoomed in the last couple of months, making them out of reach for the poor.

The harvest of pulses during kharif 2008 had suffered a serious setback, and the prospect is none-too-good in the current season, due to the erratic monsoon. Imports, which have been a regular feature to beef up supplies, have run into rough weather due to depleted inventories in our traditional markets and international prices too are bullish. To add to the woes, delays in port clearances are also reported as well as some hoarding in the hope that a further upswing in pulses may be in the offing.

But, now, not enough pulses are available abroad while the prices are also on the high side. Unlike cereals, where official stocks are sizeable and adequate to take in stride a harvest setback, the story is different in regard to pulses.

In a larger sense, pulses have been a victim of neglect. Relegated to marginal lands, and varietal breakthrough elusive, with minimal inputs and poor irrigation cover, production has languished in the face of rising demand.

To augment the pulses, shortages being faced in India, members of the Pulses Importers Association will be importing 4 lakh tonne over the next three months. India produced 14.66mt of pulses in the 2008-09 season against the annual requirement of over 18 million tonne. The gap is bridged through imports. Supply constraints pushed prices of pulses like arhar to Rs 90-100 a kg from Rs 60 two months ago. The sugar and pulses supply is causing main concern for the govt., as hoarding is widely prevalent even after the stringent open warnings of Mr. Sharad Pawar and Manmohan Singh. The edible oil scenario is also not much bright and it is decided to import 42% of total oil needs this year. But it is upto the state governments to ensure the deliveries of stocked foodgrains and other edible items at the prices affordable to the last common man. The hoarders have to be sternly dealt with by developing a fool proof mechanism. Its very tough time for the UPA govt., as they are facing challenges on all fronts of drought/ monsoon failure, food scarcity and swine flu. Mr. Manmohan Singh and his cabinet have to show their guts and come victorious, without letting down the common man.

- Abid Hussain-